Copper market trends.

All-time highs in September 2026

As of early September 2026, copper is the most expensive it has ever been. The LME 3-month contract hit a record $14,533 per ton on September 7, 2026 — up roughly 16% year-to-date, surpassing the previous January 2026 record — and traded at $14,728 to $14,779 on September 8. COMEX September delivery hit a record $6.739 per pound on September 8, up about 18% year-to-date. The drivers, per September 2026 reporting: mine and concentrate tightness plus US tariff speculation. These are benchmark figures from news reports, not live quotes — benchmarks move daily, and any selling decision should be made against current markets, not headlines. What makes the records notable is their composition: they were set while refined production actually grew 2.4% in the first half of 2026 with a preliminary refined surplus near 131,000 tons. The tightness is in ore and concentrate and in non-US geography — not in refined metal overall — which is why treatment charges went negative even as warehouses filled.

July 2025 and its aftershocks

The defining episode of the period began in July 2025. COMEX copper had risen to more than $1 per pound above LME — one of the widest differentials in trading history — on expectations that the Section 232 investigation would produce a 50% tariff on copper cathode. When the White House exempted refined copper in the July 30, 2025 proclamation, the premium imploded and prices fell; analyst John Gross called the market "dazed and confused." The tariffs that did take effect August 1, 2025 — 50% on semi-finished copper products (pipes, wires, rods, sheets, tubes) and copper-intensive derivatives — still covered $15.5 billion of 2024 imports, and the market spent 2026 re-pricing the next shoe: a possible phased tariff on refined copper itself (15% from January 2027, 30% from 2028). The Commerce Department's June 30, 2026 update deadline passed with no formal White House decision announced as of September 8, 2026, keeping the market in a tariff premium — the March 2027 CME forward premium sits near $1,000 per ton, about 7% over LME. Tariff anticipation pulled extraordinary metal into the United States: the US imported a record 1.64 million tons of refined copper in 2025, and July 2026 imports hit a record 225,094 tons — the highest monthly figure since 1990 records began, up 78% month-on-month — with Chile supplying 46% and the DRC about 25%. COMEX inventories hit a record 764,597 short tons after 53 consecutive days of increases; LME stocks climbed 61% in 2026 to about 237,475 tons.

Congo's rise and the smelter squeeze

Two slower stories matter as much as the tariff drama. First, the Democratic Republic of Congo's arrival as a US supplier: DRC cathode deliveries to the US hit a record 53,290 tons in July 2026 (a 23.9% share) versus under 32,000 tons in all of 2024. The metal trades on an LME basis at a $550–$800-per-ton discount to COMEX-deliverable brands — reflecting freight and deliverability, not quality — and acceptance is growing among rod mills and tube makers. Second, smelter economics have inverted: spot treatment charges went negative in 2025–2026, reportedly as low as negative $60 per tonne, as Chinese smelting overcapacity chased scarce concentrate, and the 2026 annual benchmark negotiation between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters deadlocked. What to watch next: the unresolved White House decision on refined-copper tariffs is the key live variable — it determines whether the record US import wave and COMEX stockpile keep growing or reverse. Watch mine output recovery in Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC; any restart progress at Cobre Panama; and whether grid, EV, and data-center demand keeps absorbing new refined supply. None of this is a price forecast, and Ironcrest publishes no per-pound prices — it is context for deciding when and how to sell. Send photos for today's price, quoted against the current market, not last month's headlines.

Copper questions, answered.